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Old 03-19-2013, 11:44 AM   #1
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JK Jeep Wrangler reliability - better info

Just read through the thread on CR's evaluation of the JK.

I wanted more up-to-date car reliability information that made the differences between cars clearer. So a few years ago I started getting people together to make this possible. TrueDelta updates actual repair frequencies, not just vague dots, four times a year, to track cars closely as they age.

We've been providing reliability stats for the JK for a few years. For some model years we have a decent number of participants, for others we don't. The more owners get involved, the more precise the information we can provide.

Participants simply report repairs the month after they occur on a one-page survey. When there are no repairs, they simply report an approximate odometer reading four times a year, following the end of each quarter.

To encourage participation, participants receive full access to all results, not just those for the Wrangler, for free. I'll share results for the JK in this thread after each update.

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Old 03-19-2013, 11:50 AM   #2
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Our latest reliability stats cover owner experiences through December 31, 2012. (CR's are based on an annual survey conducted nearly a year ago.)

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2012: 44, moderate, sample size by far the best for this year

2011: 30, low, small sample size

2010: 57, moderate, small sample size

2009: 14, low, very small sample size

2008: 61, moderate

2007: 35, low

It's likely that small sample sizes are responsible for much of the variation from model year to model year.

We note on the site that many Jeeps are subjected to severe off-roading, which could (but doesn't often seem to) increase the reported repair frequency.

For the details, including descriptions of all reported repairs, and to sign up to help improve this information in future updates:

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons

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Old 03-19-2013, 10:49 PM   #3
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You lost me at "Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 car this year".
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Old 03-19-2013, 10:58 PM   #4
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Sorry about that.

The "per year" is because the analysis looks only at the past year.

"Per 100 cars" is to get rid of the decimal. (I was told that decimals can be confusing.) For the average per single car, divide by 100. So for the 2012 this would be 0.44, meaning fewer than half of them required a repair last year.

Does this clear it up? If not, what remains unclear?

(It's hard for me to tell without helpful feedback like yours because I've been doing this for so long.)
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Old 03-19-2013, 11:22 PM   #5
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No apology needed.

I just don't get. Not sure what the statistics are trying to say. I even went to the second link and it talks about 44 successful repairs for 2012. Does that mean there were 56 unsuccessful repairs?
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Old 03-19-2013, 11:55 PM   #6
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Thanks for following up. It's always helpful to know what's not clear.

The 44 is per 100 cars, not per 100 repairs. We're calculating that for every 100 Wranglers there were 44 repair trips in the past year.

The opposite of the stat isn't an unsuccessful repair, but no repair at all.

We only count trips that included a successful repair to take dealer competence out of the equation and to be sure that there was a problem with the car.
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Old 07-17-2013, 01:36 PM   #7
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We've updated our reliability stats for the Wrangler to include owner experiences through March 31, 2013.

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2012 Wrangler: 31, moderate
2011 Wrangler: 36, moderate, small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 44, moderate, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 13, low, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 66, moderate
2007 Wrangler: 45, low, small sample size
2006 Wrangler: 41, low, very small sample size
2005 Wrangler: 38, low, very small sample size

We have two additional statistics, "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds", to indicate the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2012 Wrangler: 75, < 1

We'll have further updates in August and in November.

For the details, including the descriptions of reported repairs, and to sign up to help improve this information:

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons
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Old 10-11-2013, 10:48 AM   #8
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We've updated our reliability stats for the Wrangler to include owner experiences through June 30, 2013. (Another source is about 14 months behind.)

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2013 Wrangler: 30, moderate
2012 Wrangler: 25, low
2011 Wrangler: 18, low, small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 42, moderate, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 31, low, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 70, moderate
2007 Wrangler: 62, moderate, small sample size
2006 Wrangler: 17, low, very small sample size
2005 Wrangler: 52, low, very small sample size

We have two additional statistics, "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds", to indicate the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2012 Wrangler: 81, < 1

We'll have further updates in November and February.

To view competitors' scores and descriptions of reported repairs, and to sign up to help:

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons
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Old 12-30-2013, 11:31 AM   #9
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We've updated our reliability stats for the Wrangler to include owner experiences through September 30, 2013.

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2013 Wrangler: 30, moderate
2012 Wrangler: 36, moderate
2011 Wrangler: 19, low, very small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 42, moderate, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 22, low, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 51, moderate
2007 Wrangler: 64, moderate, small sample size

We have two additional statistics, "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds", to indicate the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2012 Wrangler: 66, < 1

We'll have further updates in February and in May. The more owners participate, the more comprehensive and precise these will be.

To see how competitors compare, and to sign up to help improve this information:

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons
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Old 12-30-2013, 11:52 AM   #10
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You lost all credibility at "CR".
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Old 03-21-2014, 01:11 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daggo66 View Post
You lost all credibility at "CR".
A response to a post well up the thread?

We've updated our reliability stats for the Wrangler to include owner experiences through December 31, 2013.

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2013 Wrangler: 43, moderate
2012 Wrangler: 23, low
2011 Wrangler: 31, low, very small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 20, low, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 31, low, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 43, low
2007 Wrangler: 92, high, very small sample size
2006 Wrangler: 34, low, very small sample size
2005 Wrangler: 57, moderate, very small sample size

We have two additional statistics, "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds", to indicate the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2012 Wrangler: 80, < 1

We'll have further updates in May and in August. The more owners participate, the more comprehensive and precise these will be.

To see the repairs behind these stats, and to sign up to help improve this information:

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons
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Old 03-21-2014, 02:50 PM   #12
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Good info, thanks!
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Old 06-17-2014, 02:50 PM   #13
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You're certainly welcome!

Our reliability stats for the Wrangler now include owner experiences through March 31, 2014, making them nearly a year ahead of other sources.

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2014 Wrangler: 46, moderate, small sample size
2013 Wrangler: 36, moderate
2012 Wrangler: 22, low
2011 Wrangler: 10, low, small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 36, low, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 43, low, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 57, moderate, small sample size
2007 Wrangler: 73, moderate, small sample size

We have two additional statistics, "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds", to indicate the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2013 Wrangler: 80, < 1
2012 Wrangler: 79, < 1

Thank you, once again, everyone who has been helping. Next update in August.

For a deeper dive, including the stats for other cars and repair descriptions, and to sign up to help improve this information:

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons
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Old 06-17-2014, 05:53 PM   #14
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What is this some kind of bean counters wet dream, just drive the jeep and enjoy.
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Old 06-17-2014, 10:54 PM   #15
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What were/are the sample sizes used?
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Old 06-29-2014, 01:01 PM   #16
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Hover over a stat on the site to see the sample size. "Small" above means under 25, and "very small" is under 15. We do need more participants for most years to provide precise stats for the JK.

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Old 09-24-2014, 01:20 PM   #17
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We've updated our reliability stats for the Wrangler to include owner experiences through June 30, 2014 (making them about 14 months ahead of some others).

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2014 Wrangler: 40, moderate
2013 Wrangler: 31, moderate
2012 Wrangler: 27, low
2011 Wrangler: 10, low, very small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 32, low, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 23, low, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 65, moderate
2007 Wrangler: 55, moderate, small sample size

We have two additional statistics, "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds", to indicate the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2013 Wrangler: 77, < 1
2012 Wrangler: 73, < 1

Next updates in November and in February. The more owners participate, the more comprehensive and precise these will be.

For repair descriptions, the stats of other cars, and to sign up to help improve this information:

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons
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Old 09-24-2014, 02:09 PM   #18
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I don't know about these tests but my Wrangler is almost a year old now, never been to the dealer to fix anything, never had a single problems. That's my report regarding reliability...
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Old 09-24-2014, 02:16 PM   #19
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I'm on Jeep #7 - ALL been Great! I'm a small sample all my own.

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Old 11-14-2014, 01:10 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzos Wrangler View Post
I don't know about these tests but my Wrangler is almost a year old now, never been to the dealer to fix anything, never had a single problems. That's my report regarding reliability...
This is the average lately. Back in the 1980s, the question was not whether a car would have any problems during the first few months, but how many. Now it's whether or not the car will have a single problem during the first year or three.

Still, there are some relatively bad ones that are likely to have a problem or two. When we have enough participants--many of them reporting "no problems" each quarter--we can provide these stats.

For those not currently participating, it's possible to sign up here:

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Old 11-14-2014, 02:28 PM   #21
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Sounds like this does not include recalls, correct? I've had a recall but zero other repairs in my '12.
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Old 12-27-2014, 04:03 PM   #22
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We've updated our reliability stats for the Wrangler to include owner experiences through September 30, 2014.

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2014 Wrangler: 28, low
2013 Wrangler: 31, moderate
2012 Wrangler: 22, low
2011 Wrangler: 30, low, very small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 25, low, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 53, moderate, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 96, high
2007 Wrangler: 49, low, small sample size

We have two additional statistics, "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds", to indicate the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2013 Wrangler: 72, < 1
2012 Wrangler: 79, < 1

Additional participants always helpful (especially if you see "small sample size" next to the year, or no stat at all).

To view the repairs behind these numbers, check the stats for other cars, and sign up to help improve this information (next update in February):

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons
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Old 12-28-2014, 08:37 PM   #23
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Mike, welcome to the forum (belatedly).

TrueDelta was a large reason why I bought my JK back in 2010. Back then, FJ had about half of the repair frequency of JK. Or, you could say it was twice as reliable. However, in absolute numbers it was something like 30 versus 60. That is still very low.

As it happened, I needed a significant warrantly repair for a transmission seal leak, but it was the only one such issue. Otherwise the JK was trouble-free. Relying on TrueDelta for guidance was a success in this case. I understand that it's only statistics and I could hit a lemon. However, the risk was acceptable.

I think I would definitely get an FJ if TD reported any number above 110.
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Old 02-05-2015, 11:46 AM   #24
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Sounds like this does not include recalls, correct? I've had a recall but zero other repairs in my '12.
Sorry I didn't see this earlier. We do not count recalls as long as they are preventive--no sign of a problem yet.
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Old 02-05-2015, 11:50 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by zaitcev View Post
Mike, welcome to the forum (belatedly).

TrueDelta was a large reason why I bought my JK back in 2010. Back then, FJ had about half of the repair frequency of JK. Or, you could say it was twice as reliable. However, in absolute numbers it was something like 30 versus 60. That is still very low.

As it happened, I needed a significant warrantly repair for a transmission seal leak, but it was the only one such issue. Otherwise the JK was trouble-free. Relying on TrueDelta for guidance was a success in this case. I understand that it's only statistics and I could hit a lemon. However, the risk was acceptable.

I think I would definitely get an FJ if TD reported any number above 110.
The second set of stats, which include the odds of needing a lot of repairs, is actually better for this than the average. Unfortunately, these require larger sample sizes than we have for most years of the Wrangler.

Even 60 is about double the average for a fairly new vehicle. Very few cars are over 100 within the warranty period. But a major reason I post the actual frequencies, and not just colored dots, is that different people have different levels of tolerance for repairs. I believe in posting the numbers and letting each person decide how high is too high.

We could provide much better information if more people participated. If you're reading this, but haven't yet signed up, and can help:

www.truedelta.com/join
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Old 03-30-2015, 01:20 PM   #26
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New stuff this time. We've updated our reliability stats for the Wrangler to include owner experiences through the end of 2014. Plus we've added reliability trends graphs. These indicate how a model's reliability has changed as it has aged, and how different model years performed when the same age.

Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2014 Wrangler: 29, low
2013 Wrangler: 14, low
2012 Wrangler: 24, low
2011 Wrangler: 34, low, very small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 42, moderate, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 59, moderate, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 94, high
2007 Wrangler: 54, moderate, small sample size

We have two additional statistics, "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds", to indicate the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2013 Wrangler: 84, < 1
2012 Wrangler: 77, < 1

We'll have further updates in May and in August. More participants especially needed for years with sample size notes, and the 2015.

For the details, including how competitors compare, and to sign up to help improve this information:

Jeep Wrangler reliability ratings and comparisons

To view the new graphs, select "reliability trends" in the breadcrumbs at the top of the linked page.
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Old 05-30-2015, 12:57 PM   #27
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Updated stats soon. More members have been selling than buying 2007-2011 Wranglers, so it would be especially helpful if more owners could join with these.

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Old 07-22-2015, 02:05 PM   #28
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So, how have these cars been doing lately?

Our reliability stats for the Wrangler now include owner experiences through March 31, 2015. (Others are nearly a year behind.)

In terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year ("low" is best):

2014 Wrangler: 29, low
2013 Wrangler: 19, low
2012 Wrangler: 35, low
2011 Wrangler: 38, low, very small sample size
2010 Wrangler: 22, low, small sample size
2009 Wrangler: 50, moderate, very small sample size
2008 Wrangler: 68, moderate
2007 Wrangler: 50, low, small sample size
2005 Wrangler: 61, low, very small sample size

Plus, the percentage of cars with no repairs in the past year and those that required 3+ trips to the repair shop:

2012 Wrangler: 76, 3

No stat for a model year? Then we very much need more participants for it. Same for those with small sample size notes. Next updates in August and November.

For repair descriptions, the stats for other cars, and to sign up to help improve this information:

Jeep Wrangler reliability

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