I have never seen a bumper mounted spare tire carrier I would run. Just too much weight/moment/leverage against that one main support point... at least in my personal opinion.
There are a couple spare tire carriers that use a support design I think is the best way to go, which is to support the entire weight of the carrier via hidden brackets that bolt to the rear rollbar support bases. This type of support uses 50% more support points, three vs. two, and it eliminates the bumper completely. Thus letting you use whatever type of bumper you want to use.
I've been running the Off-Road Fabricators spare tire carrier for over ten years now on two different Jeeps and I've yet to see a better design. On my previous TJ, stolen last year, the ORF carried a full size 35x12.50 spare plus two full 5 gallon jerry cans for 8+ years and it was still quiet, rattle-free, and sag-free the last day I saw that Jeep. Which is why I installed the same exact carrier on my replacement '04 TJ last year.
Jeep | JEEP | 85201
TJ SWING AWAY SPARE TIRE/CAN CARRIER &Active=Yes
They make two versions, one of which also carries two 5 gallon jerry cans.
Here area a couple pics, sorry none are all that good. The red Jeep is my previous Jeep (that is Blaine/Black Magic Brakes in the red Parka), the black one is my current Jeep. I have the wheel and jerry cans off the Jeep in the last pic because that particular trail (Sledgehammer in Johnson Valley) is tough enough that a spare tire can get hung up on some of the rock climbs.