Hate to break it to ya, but I went up middle st Vrain two weeks ago and there was more ice than wheeler lake. I actually slid of the trail on a 100 yard ice patch leaning down hill. That was about 1 mile in.
You might have better luck coming in the back side of coney from the reservoir?
First pic is one my buddy took 4 weeks ago at the water crossing on Coney.
The second one I took of my buddy who slid on some ice onto a rock on MSV. This was two weeks ago.
Why not hit chinaman for rocks? Small chance on snow.