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Old 02-28-2016, 09:30 PM
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Is Fiat ditching the two door?

A couple of weeks back, FCA released an update on its business plan. In covering the plan, the Detroit Free Press said Jeep is moving the production of the Wrangler to a plant in Toledo that makes Cherokees currently. The Cherokee is closer in size to the four-door, so it would make sense that the 4D Wrangler be made in that facility.

But I noticed that page 17 of the FCA plan lists notes on regulatory compliance with emissions standards, and lists ONLY the 4-door Wrangler. Is it possible that FCA is getting ready to ditch the 2D altogether? The 4D outsells the 2D by a decent margin, so what if the rumors that the 2D will get some extra length to add the longer drive train are wrong and Jeep is just planning to drop the 2-door and focus on the longer four-door for the JL?

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Old 02-28-2016, 09:40 PM   #2
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Again...Right off the bat that whole thing is a mess as far as an article, first off the wrangler has been built in Toledo for a very long time. Well since Willys was awarded the contract for military jeeps. (Yes I know it wasn't a wrangler back then) There was a time where they were built in Canada (1986-1992 in Ontario) but they are certainly not moving back to Toledo. They are already here. The Cherokee line is moving out to allow for production of the wrangler pickup truck. I highly doubt fiat would be so foolish to drop the two door. A 4door redesign would have absolutely no historical significance and the Jeep would be officially dead in my mind at least.

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Old 02-29-2016, 12:57 PM
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Again...Right off the bat that whole thing is a mess as far as an article, first off the wrangler has been built in Toledo for a very long time. Well since Willys was awarded the contract for military jeeps. (Yes I know it wasn't a wrangler back then) There was a time where they were built in Canada (1986-1992 in Ontario) but they are certainly not moving back to Toledo. They are already here. The Cherokee line is moving out to allow for production of the wrangler pickup truck. I highly doubt fiat would be so foolish to drop the two door. A 4door redesign would have absolutely no historical significance and the Jeep would be officially dead in my mind at least.
It sounded more to me like they were talking about two different facilities in Toledo. They don't have the production capacity to meet demand for either of them, so they have been making some changes to address that. Their business plan also includes an increase in the sales goal of the Wrangler for 2018 (up another 100k to 2 million units).
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Old 02-29-2016, 03:30 PM   #4
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No they won't ditch the 2-door, even though the 4-door outsells it. I have noticed that in recent years, the number of 2-doors is catching up to the number of 4-doors.

My theory is that the TJ owners are starting to replace their TJs with JKs. Why they didn't do it earlier is because there was not much incentive on the early model JKs (pre-2012), and the TJs were still relatively new. As more and more TJs die out, expect more 2 doors to sell. Bottom line is even though the 4-door is outselling the 2-door, the 2-door is still selling really well.

Also, like it or not, the 2-door Wrangler is Jeep's halo vehicle, not the 4-door. I am not bashing the 4-door, but the 2-door is more representative of the history of Wrangler.
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Old 02-29-2016, 06:15 PM   #5
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Well if they drop the 2 door it should drive the prices of them up even higher in the used market.
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Old 02-29-2016, 08:01 PM   #6
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They would never drop the 2door. I see alot as many 2door as 4 door wranglers on the streets in my area.
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Old 02-29-2016, 08:26 PM   #7
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It is possible that the 4-door Wrangler will have certain options that the 2-door does not, and they may be why they only included the 4-door in the plan. Like if for some reason they cannot fit the hybrid tech in the 2-door.

Also, not all FCA models are listed in the business plan. It could be that they only included the 4-door for simplicity, and we are just supposed to assume that the 2-door will be receiving the same updates.
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Old 02-29-2016, 08:33 PM   #8
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Yep, i have a feeling the 2dr might become the poor relation in terms of powertrain options.

Will still be there for the JL though.
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Old 03-01-2016, 03:36 PM
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It could be that they only included the 4-door for simplicity, and we are just supposed to assume that the 2-door will be receiving the same updates.
That was my first thought, but then it didn't make sense to specify the four-door, just say Wrangler.

So there is definitely some reason they called it out separately.
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Old 03-01-2016, 03:39 PM
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like it or not, the 2-door Wrangler is Jeep's halo vehicle, not the 4-door. I am not bashing the 4-door, but the 2-door is more representative of the history of Wrangler.
To us, but they sell about three two-doors for every seven four-doors. As long as they maintain something like the open top and removable doors, they can still claim the heritage with the four-door, but have more appeal to the mommy market.
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Old 03-01-2016, 07:51 PM   #11
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To us, but they sell about three two-doors for every seven four-doors. As long as they maintain something like the open top and removable doors, they can still claim the heritage with the four-door, but have more appeal to the mommy market.
The halo vehicle doesn't have to be the best selling. Dodge's halo vehicle is the Viper, and it sells less than 1000 per year. Yes, the 4-door is representative of the history of Jeep but not as much as the 2-door.
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Old 03-01-2016, 08:07 PM   #12
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Another point is that the 2-door and 4-door Wranglers are different sizes, so they may fall under different categories for carbon footprint, so it wouldn't make sense to have both vehicles represented by the same "dot." Also the picture they use is of a 2-door.
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Old 03-02-2016, 01:20 AM   #13
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The halo vehicle doesn't have to be the best selling. Dodge's halo vehicle is the Viper, and it sells less than 1000 per year.
And the Viper doesn't even have a production line. They use the prototype production line when it is not in use on prototype vehicles. Saves on shutting down a regular line for the change over for a short production run and losing production of a more high volume seller.

Interesting sidenote - the Viper V-10 was a by-product of an engineering department study and a warehouse screwup. Back in the early '90s, Dodge wanted to resurrect the 440 V-8 for truck production. Only problem is that the area where the master molds had been stored had been cleaned up and the molds were gone. They were looking at options less expensive that completely redesign of the 440. They looked at adding two cylinders to the 318 which would give them about 400 cubic inches. So they started working on the V-10. The only problem, the did not have a vehicle that had an engine bay long enough for the V-10, so they had a solution, but no vehicle.

Another group was playing around with the idea of a sports car and heard about the V-10, but in iron it was way too heavy, so they modified the design to aluminum and designed the Viper to take it. Of course in 1994 the new Dodge Ram PU had an engine bay long enough and a suspension stout enough to take the V-10. Of course while the V-10 was successful in both vehicles, the Cummins with it's massive torque potential killed off the fuel guzzling V-10 in the Ram. But the V-10 lives on in the Viper.
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Old 03-02-2016, 09:31 AM
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Also the picture they use is of a 2-door.
I noticed that, too. As a communications guy it irritated me because I thought it was sloppy not to use the right image. :-)
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Old 03-02-2016, 01:03 PM   #15
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To us, but they sell about three two-doors for every seven four-doors.
Just out of curiosity, where did you hear that? I find that very hard to believe. The ratio of 2-doors to 4-doors that I see driving is around 40-60, and that is a conservative estimate. I have also noticed that number getting closer to 50-50 as the years pass.
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Old 03-04-2016, 07:27 PM   #16
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The 2-door may not sell as many, but as the last 2-door SUV still being made there is certainly enough market to keep it. Personally I have no need for 4-doors and prefer the nimble handling and manueverablility of the 2-door and wouldn't consider buying a 4-door.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:00 AM   #17
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I would be absolutely stunned if they were to drop the 2-door from the lineup. The Jeep purists would be understandably outraged and Jeep would piss off at least half of its potential customer base.
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Old 03-15-2016, 12:30 PM   #18
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I would be absolutely stunned if they were to drop the 2-door from the lineup. The Jeep purists would be understandably outraged and Jeep would piss off at least half of its potential customer base.
Then venders can make/sell chop kits LOL
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:27 AM
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I would be absolutely stunned if they were to drop the 2-door from the lineup. The Jeep purists would be understandably outraged and Jeep would piss off at least half of its potential customer base.
The Wrangler only makes up about 1/6 of Jeep sales, and the two-door is, at best, only 30% of that. So you aren't anywhere near half of its potential customer base. At best, you are talking about 60k buyers out of 1.2 million last year. That's 5%, not 50%.

And that also assumes a lot of those two-door buyers wouldn't just buy the four-door. I would bet at least half of them would, so you're really talking about a number that is somewhere between 2.5% and 5%.

O'Rourke's Rule of Circumcision states that you can cut 10% off the top of anything and it will work just as well.
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:35 AM
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Just out of curiosity, where did you hear that? I find that very hard to believe. The ratio of 2-doors to 4-doors that I see driving is around 40-60, and that is a conservative estimate. I have also noticed that number getting closer to 50-50 as the years pass.
Jeep corporate communications guy quoted on cars.com. He said the four-door accounts for 60% of Wrangler Sales, and that was three years ago.

The four-door exploded in 2012 when it sold 117k units versus 75k for the two-door, and the gap has increased every year since.
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Old 03-16-2016, 09:36 AM   #21
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The Wrangler only makes up about 1/6 of Jeep sales, and the two-door is, at best, only 30% of that. So you aren't anywhere near half of its potential customer base. At best, you are talking about 60k buyers out of 1.2 million last year. That's 5%, not 50%.

And that also assumes a lot of those two-door buyers wouldn't just buy the four-door. I would bet at least half of them would, so you're really talking about a number that is somewhere between 2.5% and 5%.

O'Rourke's Rule of Circumcision states that you can cut 10% off the top of anything and it will work just as well.

I thought "Bernstein" wrote the Rule of Circumcision....
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Old 03-16-2016, 10:26 AM   #22
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Jeep corporate communications guy quoted on cars.com. He said the four-door accounts for 60% of Wrangler Sales, and that was three years ago.

The four-door exploded in 2012 when it sold 117k units versus 75k for the two-door, and the gap has increased every year since.
Ok so that is 40% of the market, not 30% like you said before. That is still a huge chunk of the market that FCA would lose by cutting the 2-door.

Also, that article was written in 2013, so the article does not support your claim that the gap has increased every year. In the past 3 years, I have noticed more and more 2-doors on the road, implying the gap is decreasing, not increasing. That makes sense though, because with the 2012 update, 2-door TJ owners finally had an incentive to buy a JK because they offered a better engine/transmission than the TJ. In addition, as the years go on and more TJs die out, more TJ owners will replace their TJs with 2-door JKs, so that gap will continue to shrink.

What is interesting is that the article mentions that 70% of JKU owners actually go off road. That is much more than the general consensus which believes 90% of JKUs stay on the pavement.

One thing we have all missed that proves FCA is not dropping the 2-door is because they have 2-door mules! If they were dropping the 2-door, they wouldn't bother testing the drivetrain on a 2-door.
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Old 03-16-2016, 06:10 PM   #23
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Jeep corporate communications guy quoted on cars.com. He said the four-door accounts for 60% of Wrangler Sales, and that was three years ago.
So you're taking that ~60% of sales (which could've been 57% for all we know) and turning that ~40% into ~30% in just 3 years. That's a lot of theory going on there.

However more importantly, the 'new plant' they are moving to (literally 500 feet away within the same compound) is going to increase their capacity by about 50+% even without overtime, so they won't be cutting back any production anytime soon, especially since they are focusing on adding the Pick-up which is even smaller quantities than the 2-dr.

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Old 03-16-2016, 06:26 PM   #24
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What is interesting is that the article mentions that 70% of JKU owners actually go off road. That is much more than the general consensus which believes 90% of JKUs stay on the pavement.

One thing we have all missed that proves FCA is not dropping the 2-door is because they have 2-door mules! If they were dropping the 2-door, they wouldn't bother testing the drivetrain on a 2-door.
That last bit doesn't prove it, but it is a strong indicator, of "why bother if you don't have to", so your theory is pretty sound.

Remember the mule could be testing it in relationship to the layout for the pick-up or something else, but as you say, it's Ivory Snow-likely certain that it's testing for the 2dr JL.

I am very certain there will be a 2Dr JL, and it will likely be the 4th replacement cottage Wrangler at some point in time. And that is also why I don't believe the number of 2Dr owners out there is insignificant enough to drop the model, and I also am pretty certain many wouldn't be looking at a 4Dr option as easily as the OP thinks.

As for the off-roading bit, I think their term for off-roading in that 70% includes soft-roading / gravel road type usage, whereas our 90% number is for people who go beyond where the map ends.
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Old 03-16-2016, 06:47 PM   #25
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Yes a company whose only successful car and mainstay product is a two door....will be dropping....the only other two door in their lineup.


Nope. Fiats automotive sucess has hinged on a two door low cost two door the fiat 500.

The wrangler has its own segment being a two door low cost SUV type vehicle. With no competition
That 30% will disappear completely not rollover into four door sales like one would hope.

Now if they make that renegade pickup with the abarth tuned 165hp 1.4 multiair turbo. I would be allover it.
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Old 03-17-2016, 06:35 AM   #26
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If they did drop it, which would be pretty stupid, they should sell a final limited/special edition all decked out 2 door Wrangler. They'd probably get some crazy money for it, and someone with the resources would probably buy one or two, cover them up put them into a climate controlled garage and hope to sell them in a few decades for big $$.
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Old 03-17-2016, 12:32 PM   #27
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The wrangler has its own segment being a two door low cost SUV type vehicle. With no competition
That 30% will disappear completely not rollover into four door sales like one would hope.
Well if the rumors of a new Bronco on the horizon are true, then the 2-door JL will have competition, which would even further reduce the likelihood of rollover into 4-door sales. I personally would buy a 2-door Bronco before I bought a 4-door Wrangler, if the Bronco was done right that is (solid axles, body on frame, etc.).
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Old 03-17-2016, 12:38 PM   #28
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However more importantly, the 'new plant' they are moving to (literally 500 feet away within the same compound) is going to increase their capacity by about 50+% even without overtime, so they won't be cutting back any production anytime soon, especially since they are focusing on adding the Pick-up which is even smaller quantities than the 2-dr.
If the pickup version is sold in smaller quantities than the 2-door SUV version, it won't be by much. The Colorado/Canyon last year sold about 110k units, and the Tacoma sold 180k.

I imagine the Jeep truck to be somewhere in between, but I would not be surprised if it could potentially surpass the mighty Tacoma, especially if they use the 3.0l EcoDiesel V6. That engine is better than the GM offering, and Toyota doesn't even have a diesel option, not to mention that the Jeep truck will be more offroad capable than both the GM and the Toyota trucks due to its solid axles.
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Old 03-17-2016, 01:18 PM   #29
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Yeah, there is potential there definitely, and a good target / opportunity for replacing some fleet vehicles for people like forestry service, etc.
However, the initial target seemed lower from the second announcement in January, and then they will ramp up volume to utilize the capacity of Toledo South which would give them about ~350K 2/4Dr + ~150K P total capacity, which would be able to handles the volumes you're talking about once everything runs smoothly.
Overtime like they currently have on the JK line would add about another 50+% capacity if they hit it out of the park and demand is way beyond projections on either, and that's without leveraging shared resources.

They will also stagger the production lines, so that the Pickup can use the JK's plant facilities after JL production is moved to the bigger Cherokee line which needs to be re-tooled to body-on-frame after the unitbody Cherokee leaves later this year.

"You will build the Wrangler pickup shortly after the launch of the new Wrangler, which should be operational sometime by the end of next year," Mr. Marchionne said.
Fiat Chrysler CEO says Toledo will lose Cherokee by next year, keep Wrangler, add pickup - Toledo Blade

We will likely see the Pick-up be an initial Fall release I would think, similar to the Cherokee's launch with late availability to allow a ramp up of production as they reach operational efficiencies.

As for the Bronco, the earliest due date for that is 2020 it seems, and even that seems like a question mark as all of the stuff we've seen sofar are renderings based on an old concept (since confirmed to no longer be in the running, similar to LR's D100 concept being nothing like the real thing), so the final product is still a big question mark.

Much of the expectations of a Bronco in the US are based on the concept and success of the similar vehicle called the "Troll-er" being made in Brasil by their off-road subsidiary Horizonte, off course that could just be Ford Troll-ing the marketplace to keep them from committing to other options in the hopes they can wait for a Bronco that may or may not ever materialize outside of the Amazon.
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Old 03-17-2016, 01:45 PM   #30
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2 door Wranglers will disappear when 2 door pickups do. Although both are being overshadowed by their 4 door counterparts I don't see them going anywhere soon. Imho

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