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Old 03-01-2016, 04:53 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by NerfHerder View Post
I'm not so sure about that. The 2-door sells for about $4k less than the 4-door. Let's say they lose 10 percent from people who would only buy two-doors. That's about 5,000 vehicles. They can make that up easily with increased production of four-doors. Not only do they still sell the same 45k Wranglers to people who would have bought two, but bought four instead, but they make $4k more off of them. If a two-door averages $30k retail, they lose $150 million and gain $180 million off the four-door sales. They also have reduced costs from only assembling one vehicle, and storing one set of parts. Fiat is already replacing the Compass and Patriot with one vehicle, and are looking to reduce other lines, so consolidation of two versions of one vehicle isn't exactly a stretch.
That's some funky math...

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Old 03-01-2016, 05:34 PM   #32
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Remember that once they move Wrangler production to the Toledo North Plant (JL) , they aren't going to turn the Toledo South facility (current JK) into another vehicle line, it's going to be the Pickup Truck capacity.
FCA will initially have excess capacity for quite some time at the Toledo Assembly Complex (which is North/South on the same huge lot connected by the Supplier Park component in the middle), so the idea of discontinuing the 2Dr is a step in the wrong direction for volume, just when the challenge got much bigger.
The time to kill the 2dr for whatever reason (including transition sales to the higher margin 4dr) would've been when they were hard pressed for capacity (~270K Unit) at the existing plant and were paying overtime and shortening holidays, not once they have large untapped capacity (~350-390K+), in addition to the old facilities bringing the non-overtime total capacity to over 550+K total between both plants (270 was with OT etc). The Pick-up can only do so much to increase sales, and it's only expected to do about 15% +/- , so the 2Dr has to stay near-term. Without a regulatory reason I don't see a compelling reason why the would even think about doing that near term. Perhaps in 5+ years if sales keep growing like the last 5 years, but even that is unlikely able to kill the 2Dr.

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Old 03-01-2016, 08:35 PM   #33
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I just throw this out there, but one of the problems with the 2-door is the short drive train. The reason why the Wrangler never got the SelecTrac transfer case.

Possibly if the JL is getting shorter, that a 2-door JL would have too short of a drive train to support required improvements like 7, 8, or 9 speed auto transmissions for MPG reasons. In contrast, the 4-door JL and the JT would have the room for such a transmission.

Continuing to play what-if, would you all embrace a 2-door JL if it was available only as a 2WD model (taking the transfer case out of the drive train)?
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Old 03-01-2016, 08:40 PM   #34
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I just throw this out there, but one of the problems with the 2-door is the short drive train. The reason why the Wrangler never got the SelecTrac transfer case. Possibly if the JL is getting shorter, that a 2-door JL would have too short of a drive train to support required improvements like 7, 8, or 9 speed auto transmissions for MPG reasons. In contrast, the 4-door JL and the JT would have the room for such a transmission. Continuing to play what-if, would you all embrace a 2-door JL if it was available only as a 2WD model (taking the transfer case out of the drive train)?
A 2WD Jeep is pointless. The JL will likely be longer, they've already spotted a two door JK with what is suspected to be JL bits. The two door won't go away. Any assumption of people going to a 4 door automatically is absurd.
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Old 03-01-2016, 09:08 PM   #35
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I just throw this out there, but one of the problems with the 2-door is the short drive train. The reason why the Wrangler never got the SelecTrac transfer case. Possibly if the JL is getting shorter, that a 2-door JL would have too short of a drive train to support required improvements like 7, 8, or 9 speed auto transmissions for MPG reasons. In contrast, the 4-door JL and the JT would have the room for such a transmission. Continuing to play what-if, would you all embrace a 2-door JL if it was available only as a 2WD model (taking the transfer case out of the drive train)?
No 4X4 would be a deal breaker for me too.
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Old 03-01-2016, 09:17 PM   #36
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I'm not so sure about that. The 2-door sells for about $4k less than the 4-door. Let's say they lose 10 percent from people who would only buy two-doors. That's about 5,000 vehicles. They can make that up easily with increased production of four-doors. Not only do they still sell the same 45k Wranglers to people who would have bought two, but bought four instead, but they make $4k more off of them. If a two-door averages $30k retail, they lose $150 million and gain $180 million off the four-door sales.

They also have reduced costs from only assembling one vehicle, and storing one set of parts.
This ^^^^^ and this is why NO one makes a 2 door anymore. There is no 2 door competition and 2 door JKs are insignificant at 10% of last years sales. Be no surprise the see Jeep drop the @ door Wrangler.

The 2 door car was popular before seatbelts and child restraint seats when parents kept kids inside the car by controlling the doors. Today parents ALL want rear doors so they can buckle their kids in.
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Old 03-01-2016, 09:34 PM   #37
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I hope they don't stop selling 2 doors. I bought the 4 door because I have 2 kids, in 3-4 years when I actually own it I plan on buying a 2 door. Hopefully a new one!
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Old 03-01-2016, 09:41 PM   #38
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This ^^^^^ and this is why NO one makes a 2 door anymore. There is no 2 door competition and 2 door JKs are insignificant at 10% of last years sales. Be no surprise the see Jeep drop the @ door Wrangler.

The 2 door car was popular before seatbelts and child restraint seats when parents kept kids inside the car by controlling the doors. Today parents ALL want rear doors so they can buckle their kids in.
I couldn't care less what the family wants or needs. I'm single and bought my 2 door JK to wheel, not haul groceries and haul the soccer team.
Around the Cascades with tight switchbacks and forests, the 2 doors rule.
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Old 03-01-2016, 09:43 PM   #39
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FCA makes a majority of their money on Jeep and Ram. If FCA dumped Alfa Romeo and the Fiat 500, the vast majority of North American consumers wouldn't care and FCA wouldn't notice.

If FCA kills off the Wrangler, they'll be choking themselves to corporate death.
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Old 03-01-2016, 10:13 PM   #40
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This ^^^^^ and this is why NO one makes a 2 door anymore. There is no 2 door competition and 2 door JKs are insignificant at 10% of last years sales. Be no surprise the see Jeep drop the @ door Wrangler.

The 2 door car was popular before seatbelts and child restraint seats when parents kept kids inside the car by controlling the doors. Today parents ALL want rear doors so they can buckle their kids in.

You're not seeing the whole picture.

I've read articles where Jeep executives have said the two door isn't just competing against other 4x4s but also other "toys" like the Mustang and similar models. Lose the two door, you lost the people looking for a fun car. There is so little added cost to have two models of the Wrangler, they did the Unlimited as inexpensively/basic as possible.

And bullshit on 10% of overall sales. And even if it were that low, 10% isn't an insignificant number.
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Old 03-01-2016, 10:41 PM   #41
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I never speak in absolutes, but Jeep will never get rid of the two-door Wrangler.
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Old 03-01-2016, 11:03 PM   #42
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When we bought our 2013 JK, if there was no 2-dr option we would have not bought a Jeep. My better half commented earlier this evening that if she had wanted an SUV she would have bought an SUV.
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Old 03-02-2016, 09:16 AM
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Interesting argument, although I suspect they'd lose more than 10% of their 2 door sales.
Well, technically they would lose ALL of their two-door sales. :-)

But I still say given the number of on-road, stock two-door Jeeps I see driving around relative to those that look like they have at least seen a dirt road or two, I think people who want the image without the work would still buy four-doors.
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Old 03-02-2016, 09:21 AM
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That's some funky math...
How do you figure?

50k 2D units minus 10% is 45k that buy 4D at $4,000 more per unit. 45,000 x $4,000 is $180,000,000 more off of the same 45k units.

If those 5k 2D that don't get sold retailed at $30,000 (base is $24, so I figured a higher average with options of $30k). That is $150,000,000 that thy lose.

However, that $30k may actually be high given that the people who want to mod and go offroad may wall be buying the $24k stock Jeep sport and the additional money would go to aftermarket parts rather than dealer option packages.
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Old 03-02-2016, 09:25 AM
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Possibly if the JL is getting shorter, that a 2-door JL would have too short of a drive train to support required improvements like 7, 8, or 9 speed auto transmissions for MPG reasons. In contrast, the 4-door JL and the JT would have the room for such a transmission.
The rumors I have seen, and I need to go find the article, indicated the 2-dr will be getting longer to make more room for the drive train. It sounded similar to the CJ5 to CJ7 shift adding more length. But that also made me think they were going to ditch the two door. Once you are adding that kind of length, you either end up with something that looks like the original two-door Unlimited, or you just keep the four-door.
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Old 03-02-2016, 10:03 AM   #46
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Hmm, I wonder if a 'tweener' 2-door size (like the LJ we all love) would be long enough for such a transmission...
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Old 03-02-2016, 11:18 AM   #47
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The rumors I have seen, and I need to go find the article, indicated the 2-dr will be getting longer to make more room for the drive train. It sounded similar to the CJ5 to CJ7 shift adding more length. But that also made me think they were going to ditch the two door.
No, I think what we'll see with the 2dr JK to JL transition will be more reminiscent of what AMC did when it purchased Kaiser-Jeep in 1970. AMC went through 70 and 71 keeping the CJ5 basically the same as what Kaiser had been offering... but in 72 lengthened the CJ5s front clip by 3 inches, changing the wheelbase to 84". Just these few inches made it possible so that they had enough room to drop in their own AMC motors.... mainly that big ol straight six. I have a 66 cj5 v6 and a 78 cj5 straight six.. put them side by side and most people can't point out the difference. AMC did a killer job in revamping the CJ5 to change out its driveline without really changing it's looks one bit... let's hope that's the case with our beloved JK. Change it if you have to.... but change it just slightly.
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Old 03-02-2016, 11:42 AM   #48
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Since I drive a TJ, it is moot to me.
I will not live long enough to drive a 4 gater.

I might go look at a nice 2 door pick up though!
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Old 03-02-2016, 02:50 PM   #49
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How do you figure? 50k 2D units minus 10% is 45k that buy 4D at $4,000 more per unit. 45,000 x $4,000 is $180,000,000 more off of the same 45k units. If those 5k 2D that don't get sold retailed at $30,000 (base is $24, so I figured a higher average with options of $30k). That is $150,000,000 that thy lose. However, that $30k may actually be high given that the people who want to mod and go offroad may wall be buying the $24k stock Jeep sport and the additional money would go to aftermarket parts rather than dealer option packages.
Not sure where your 50k total number of units came from. Not sure where your per unit cost of 30k 2dr and 34k 4dr respectively came from. Doesn't really matter I guess though...

Technically yes your scenario adds up correctly. But that's making the assumption that the 10% loss in 2dr sales goes directly into purchasing 4dr models. Given your scenario this is very sensitive and anything less than around an 8.8 percentage conversation from 2dr to 4dr sales ratio you begin to operate at a loss.
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Old 03-02-2016, 02:50 PM   #50
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I couldn't care less what the family wants or needs. I'm single and bought my 2 door JK to wheel, not haul groceries and haul the soccer team.
you and I are the minority.... I bet we lose
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Old 03-02-2016, 03:18 PM   #51
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If Jeep drops the 2-door Wrangler, my '13 will be the last Jeep I ever own.....
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Old 03-02-2016, 03:46 PM   #52
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2-door vehicles are so dead, that IIRC Buick has announced they are developing a 4-door coupe.
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Old 03-02-2016, 04:07 PM   #53
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Perhaps I'm wrong but the 2door is iconic to jeep. Even a lot of 4door first jeep owners remember all their high school friends that had one, and their dad that had one, and that they always wanted one. They were all 2dr cause that's all they made. But then remember they have 2 kids, a spouse, and a dog, and are thankful the 4dr is available for them.

I imagine single people, especially first time buyers will more often buy the 2dr option. If jeep wants to compete in the "fun" market, are young, unmarried first time buyers going to want a 4dr vehicle? Yeah that's why ford sells so many 4dr mustangs.

And speaking of different versions, ford and Chevy have the short extended cab, 4 full door models, plus short and long bed and the option of the dually. They seem to have no issue with multiple configurations.

Is it a possibility? Yeah one day. But I doubt this is that day. I will always think 2dr when I think Wrangler. Its just an image burned into my memory. Even if I buy a 4dr one day.

Didn't they already try and fail with the 2wd wrangler? Why would they go back for round two?
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Old 03-02-2016, 04:07 PM   #54
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I bought my 2dr JK because this is what I wanted and this is all I needed. I would have never bought a 4dr JK and I never will, too big and not convenient for me and don't want to pay the extra $$$ for it.
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Old 03-03-2016, 12:40 PM   #55
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This ^^^^^ and this is why NO one makes a 2 door anymore.
That theory sounds good on the surface until you actually think about it. Sure there aren't as many 2Dr models out there as there were, but there are a lot of 2/4 Dr platforms, like the Honda Civic and Accord sell a lot of 2Drs in Canada, BMW, Lexus and Mercedes all sell a lot of 2Dr cars.
Also the Wrangler itself is not just another "also ran" vehicle, so that others aren't doing something has little bearing on what is good for Wrangler owners or production.

The shared parts between the two vehicles is also high enough, it's not like they totally transform it and it becomes a completely different beast like some sedans vs coupés.

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There is no 2 door competition and 2 door JKs are insignificant at 10% of last years sales.
Where are you getting your sales figures for 2Drs? That's way off the ~38% number I saw for 2013.

The other thing that contradicts the volume theory is the fact that FCA is adding a Pick-up to the line, which will be even lower volume than the 2Dr alone, but would compliment the 2Dr assembly of the front end and overall production allowing increased economies of scales for all Wranglers.
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Old 03-03-2016, 12:57 PM   #56
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How do you figure?
Because your math is a back-end process, and bears little on decisions like these. Tell me the factors of production, the margin and the inventory overhead, and then you have some math that supports your theory.

The numbers you're providing aren't even internally valid because you're working backwards, and assuming that revenue is a sole driver versus profitability, whereas if anything the numbers that get touted the most are volume and margin, neither of which factor into your figures.

And as previously mentioned, considering that their capacity is about to go from severe under-capacity to extreme over-capacity, there is little chance that they will be reducing options from the Wrangler line.
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Old 03-03-2016, 02:12 PM   #57
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I think some people are missing the point, They won't get rid of the 2 door platform because it gets better mpg and could easily lend its self to a high bred or electric platform to get those all important CAFE standards up for the brand. Which helpful for us 4 door gas hogs. And shifting of the plants is no big deal, I believe the pickup and 4 door share more than the 2 door, but why move it too far from the parts source.......Corp politics are fun....
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Old 03-03-2016, 04:37 PM   #58
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My statement regarding the pick-up would be for the interior components of the 2Dr of course drivetrain would share more with the 4Dr, but even there we might see more of a split between Sport-Sahara-Rubicon than just 2Dr 4Dr. Won't know until they show, of course.

Just to be clear, the plant 'move' isn't really much of one, it's essentially just the other side of the same lot sharing many facilities. To me it appears that using the shared partner complex they would likely be able to seemlessly ramp up JL production as they turn down JK production and when they start producing the pickup about a year later (likely in the old JK space) they likely just add it into the mix as well without much notice.
To me a move to a truly new facility would cause much more problems, of course corporate thinking can make anything that seems simple into something overly complex.

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